Dec 12, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Dec 12 00:59:19 UTC 2014 (20141212 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141212 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141212 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 15,512 14,037,959 Los Angeles, CA...Long Beach, CA...Santa Ana, CA...Anaheim, CA...Glendale, CA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20141212 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 12,459 13,826,563 Los Angeles, CA...Long Beach, CA...Santa Ana, CA...Anaheim, CA...Glendale, CA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20141212 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 15,422 14,008,985 Los Angeles, CA...Long Beach, CA...Santa Ana, CA...Anaheim, CA...Glendale, CA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20141212 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 120059

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0659 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014

   VALID 120100Z - 121200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS COASTAL CA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST
   COAST...PARTICULARLY NEAR COASTAL SOUTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATE
   TONIGHT WHERE SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

   ...COASTAL CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CA...
   WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR WILL CONTINUE AS A FRONTAL BAND OTHERWISE
   SPREADS INLAND IN A GENERAL EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FASHION ACROSS
   CENTRAL/COASTAL SOUTHERN CA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. GRADUAL COOLING
   ALOFT WILL AUGMENT THE 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM VANDENBERG AFB
   WHICH FEATURED AN INVERSION AROUND 800 MB...WITH THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
   ISOLATED/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO SHORE LATER TONIGHT. WITH
   STRONG WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION...STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INLAND-SPREADING FRONTAL BAND. A
   FEW LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS COULD ALSO DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND NEAR
   COASTAL AREAS LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY WITH ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL
   FOR A FEW WATERSPOUTS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO.

   ..GUYER.. 12/12/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z