Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 201249
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014
VALID 201300Z - 211200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S. TODAY.
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER-AIR PATTERN IS FCST TO CONTINUE ACROSS CONUS THIS
PERIOD. BY 12Z...PHASING/MERGER OF SEVERAL SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
NOW OVER WRN CONUS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS GREAT
PLAINS STATES...WITH DEVELOPMENT OF TROUGHING AND RELATED CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER DAKOTAS...CENTRAL PLAINS...TX AND MUCH OF NRN/WRN MEX.
INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY
FROM OH TO AL -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENEWD THROUGH TODAY. SRN
PORTION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ATLC COAST AND WEAKEN FURTHER...WHILE NRN
PORTION IS ABSORBED INTO SMALL 500-MB LOW NOW OVER W-CENTRAL NY.
AT SFC...FRONTAL-WAVE LOW NOW OVER N-CENTRAL GULF...S OF LA
COAST...SHOULD MOVE EWD ALONG FRONT AND WEAKEN AS UPPER SUPPORT
MOVES AWAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DECELERATION AND EVENTUAL FRONTOLYSIS
OF BAROCLINIC ZONE NOW EXTENDING SWWD FROM LOW ACROSS W-CENTRAL
GULF. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW INITIALLY OFFSHORE NERN FL WILL
MOVE ENEWD OVER ATLC SE OF SC AND S OF OUTER BANKS. WHILE
ASSOCIATED/ELEVATED WAA REGIME N OF LOW MAY SUPPORT SOME
CONVECTION...THUNDER POTENTIAL THEREWITH APPEARS MINIMAL AND WELL
OFFSHORE THROUGH PERIOD. AIR MASS APPEARS TOO DRY AND/OR STABLE FOR
TSTMS OVER CONUS.
..EDWARDS/COHEN.. 12/20/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z