Jan 24, 2014 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jan 24 05:42:47 UTC 2014 (20140124 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140124 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140124 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140124 0700 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 240541

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1141 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014

   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS
   THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. THE AIR MASS PRECEDING THIS SYSTEM
   WILL BE VERY COLD/DRY...AND LITTLE TO NO MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR
   AHEAD OF AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN NEGLIGIBLE
   INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER
   COASTAL SRN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE SLIGHT LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING COULD
   OCCUR...SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.

   ELSEWHERE...COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ON THE
   CYCLONIC SIDE OF A STRONG POLAR JET WILL SUPPORT WEAK INSTABILITY
   OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...VERY COLD TEMPERATURE PROFILES MAY
   LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN THE MORE
   INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. A CP AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
   ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS WITH MINIMAL TSTM POTENTIAL
   EXPECTED.

   ..ROGERS.. 01/24/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z