Jan 27, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jan 27 17:31:45 UTC 2014 (20140127 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140127 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140127 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140127 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 271729

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1129 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014

   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A SYNOPTIC
   UPPER TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE ERN U.S. ALONG WITH AN UPSTREAM
   RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SEWD
   THROUGH THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH...REACHING THE OH AND TN VALLEYS TUESDAY
   EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GULF
   STREAM AREA SWWD THROUGH NRN FL INTO THE NRN GULF WILL ADVANCE SEWD
   DURING THE DAY...WHILE A LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES
   THROUGH THE CNTRL AND ERN STATES.  

   ...NRN FL...

   WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN SW-NE FRONTOGENETIC ZONE
   FROM SRN MS NEWD THROUGH THE ERN CAROLINAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING...THEN SWD INTO NRN FL OVERNIGHT. A SHALLOW LAYER OF WEAK
   INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP OVER NRN FL WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGER POST
   FRONTAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG STRENGTHENING LLJ. NAM FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SHOW THE RESULTING INSTABILITY MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT AND
   EXTEND THROUGH DEEP ENOUGH LAYERS FOR A FEW STRIKES ACROSS NRN FL
   LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN SOMEWHAT
   ISOLATED.

   ..DIAL.. 01/27/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z