SPC AC 121719
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NNEWD FROM
EXTREME ERN NC AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TO THE GULF OF MAINE
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A ZONE OF STRONG/DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL PRECEDE THE DEEPENING CYCLONE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO
NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW...WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED INLAND FROM THE COAST...AND A MIX WITH RAIN ALONG THE
COAST. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM IMPINGING ON THIS ZONE OF
ASCENT /DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL WAA/FRONTOGENESIS AND DCVA ALOFT/ WILL
SUPPORT SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND POTENTIALLY A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES FROM THE IMMEDIATE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW
INTO SE NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW EVENING. VERY ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE INVOF
CENTRAL VA...THOUGH THIS RISK APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT AN
OUTLOOK AREA. FARTHER S... THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF SE FL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS WILL BE DOMINATED BY
RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE PROFILES WITH NO RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE
ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG PAC NW COAST WHERE A
PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH WA/ORE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...ANY LINGERING SHALLOW BUOYANCY ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW
WILL LIKELY BE OFFSET BY A TENDENCY FOR WAA AND HEIGHT RISES DURING
THE DAY...PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON DAY 3.
..THOMPSON.. 02/12/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
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