SPC AC 181655

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1055 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2014

   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN KS INTO CNTRL MO...

   ...CNTRL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY/LOWER OH VALLEY...

   STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE ORDER OF 150M/12HR...WILL
   DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 500MB
   SPEED MAX IN EXCESS OF 80KT DIGS ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION INTO
   THE TX PANHANDLE.  AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE SRN ROCKIES...SFC
   WARM FRONT SHOULD RESPOND AND ADVANCE NWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER INTO
   NRN OK BY 20/00Z.  STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP THIS
   NWD-ADVANCING BOUNDARY SHOULD INDUCE ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS ERN
   KS/MO DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 60F SFC DEW POINTS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
   WARM SECTOR AS FAR NORTH AS I-40 BY EVENING.  THIS MOISTURE SHOULD
   SPREAD ATOP RETREATING COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS OVER ERN KS/MO
   LIKELY BEING LIFTED NEAR 850MB AS LLJ STRENGTHENS IN EXCESS OF 50KT.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...APPROACHING 7.5
   C/KM...WILL OVERSPREAD KS WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE AROUND 1500
   J/KG ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM SERN KS INTO CNTRL MO.  SOUTH OF THIS
   ZONE...STRONG CAP ACROSS OK/AR SHOULD PREVENT DEEP CONVECTION FROM
   DEVELOPING ACROSS THESE STATES.  HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY MOIST DEEP
   CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION AS STRONGLY SHEARED UPDRAFTS SHOULD
   ROTATE DUE TO CLOUD LAYER SHEAR OF 80-90KT.  LARGE
   HAIL...POTENTIALLY THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
   STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

   ..DARROW.. 02/18/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z