SPC AC 220541

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1241 AM CDT SAT MAR 22 2014

   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MID/UPPER FLOW APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN LARGELY CONFLUENT ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE U.S. THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  BUT ONE PROMINENT
   BRANCH OF FLOW...CURVING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
   OF THE BROAD POLAR VORTEX /BECOMING CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN BAFFIN
   ISLAND BY 12Z MONDAY/...APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE SLOWLY AMPLIFYING
   SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES.  AS THIS
   OCCURS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING...CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...IS
   EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING AS
   FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU...THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
   FLORIDA PENINSULA.

   IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE DEVELOPMENTS...THE WEAKENING CENTER OF A
   LARGE COLD SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE
   PERIOD...AS ANOTHER COLD SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO NOSE SOUTHWARD TO
   THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES.  MODELS SUGGEST
   THAT THE SHALLOW LEADING EDGE OF THE INITIAL COLD INTRUSION WILL
   ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY IN THE
   PERIOD...BUT A RESIDUAL MOIST LAYER ABOVE IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
   TO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE GULF STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE  PERIOD.  WEAK DESTABILIZATION
   ASSOCIATED WITH MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
   ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF STATES DURING
   THE DAY SUNDAY.

   ...PARTS OF S CNTRL INTO SERN TEXAS...
   THE MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF CAPPING
   ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FOCUS
   FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PERIOD.  WITH LAPSE RATES
   REMAINING RELATIVELY STEEP ABOVE THE LINGERING ELEVATED MOIST
   LAYER...IT STILL DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT CAPE AND
   CONVECTIVE LAYER SHEAR COULD BECOME CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE HAIL IN
   STRONGER STORMS.

   ...SRN GEORGIA AND ADJACENT SERN AL/NRN FL...
   PRE-FRONTAL LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FIELDS APPEAR LIKELY TO BE
   WEAK...ALLOWING FOR ONLY RELATIVELY MODEST EAST SOUTHEASTERLY STORM
   MOTIONS.  BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE STRONG...AND COULD
   CONTRIBUTE TO ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT AS WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER
   DESTABILIZATION OCCURS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  IT DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF
   THE QUESTION THAT CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
   LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS HAIL...IN STRONGER STORMS.

   ..KERR.. 03/22/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z