SPC AC 230517
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE MID/UPPER TROUGHING EAST OF
THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC STILL APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH
12Z MONDAY. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT...A LARGE COLD
SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH THE SHALLOW LEADING
EDGE OF THIS AIR MASS ADVANCING INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC
COAST.
ABOVE THE SHALLOW STABLE NEAR SURFACE LAYER TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTH
OF THE FRONT...GUIDANCE REMAINS SUGGESTIVE THAT MOIST...POTENTIALLY
WEAKLY UNSTABLE...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS ...EASTWARD THROUGH THE
EASTERN GULF COAST. THIS MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW PROBABILITIES
FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...UNTIL CONSOLIDATING SHORT WAVE IMPULSES
CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION SOUTH OF HUDSON
BAY...TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTS...LATE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS CONTRIBUTES TO THE INITIATION OF
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT EAST OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC
COAST...LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST REGION...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT
DRYING TO END CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
THE RISK FOR VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY APPEARS MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE SIZABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER BASED CAPE MAY DEVELOP. MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION
DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE NEAR ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA BY LATE MONDAY EVENING...BUT IT CURRENTLY SEEMS
THAT ANY RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE OFFSHORE.
..KERR.. 03/23/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
|
| 
)
