SPC AC 260528

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1228 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2014

   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SHORTER WAVELENGTH IMPULSES...COMPRISING LARGER SCALE UPPER
   TROUGHING NOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST...APPEAR LIKELY TO CONTINUE
   INLAND...WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE BELT OF
   WESTERLIES EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. BY THE END OF
   THE FORECAST PERIOD.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT ONE OF THE MORE
   SIGNIFICANT OF THESE PERTURBATIONS WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES BY 12Z
   THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A 70+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK ACROSS THE
   TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
   THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RELATIVELY DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN INTO
   CENTRAL KANSAS...AND INTENSE SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET STRENGTHENING TO
   AROUND 70 KT ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER
   MISSOURI VALLEY.

   THE SPREAD BEGINS TO INCREASE AMONG THE MODELS WITH REGARD TO
   SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENTS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
   NIGHT...BUT THE SURFACE CYCLONE IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO SLOWLY
   WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS WITH THE STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING AND DEEP
   LAYER MEAN FLOW TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  IT ALSO STILL
   APPEARS PROBABLE THAT THIS WILL TEND TO OCCUR BEFORE A SEASONABLY
   MOIST RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE IS ABLE TO DEVELOP OFF THE WESTERN
   GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS LIKELY WILL LIMIT THE EXTENT OF THE CONVECTIVE
   POTENTIAL DURING THIS PERIOD.  BUT A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY DOES
   APPEAR TO EXIST FOR WEAK TO MODEST WARM SECTOR MOISTENING AND
   DESTABILIZATION...WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
   CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK SEVERE PROBABILITIES FROM PORTIONS OF THE
   LOWER CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OZARK
   PLATEAU DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

   ...LWR CNTRL PLAINS INTO MID MS VALLEY/OZARK PLATEAU...
   STRONGER FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET STREAK MAY
   BEGIN OVERSPREADING NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
   MISSOURI SHORTLY AFTER NOON THURSDAY...AS SURFACE DEW POINTS
   STRUGGLE TO RISE THROUGH THE LOWER/MID 50S.  WHILE THIS GENERALLY IS
   SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...STRONG FORCING
   FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND VERTICAL SHEAR MAY COMPENSATE.  

   IT CURRENTLY SEEMS PROBABLE THAT STORMS WILL INITIATE IN THE
   VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AND DEVELOPING DRYLINE NEAR OR JUST WEST
   OF THE KANSAS CITY AREA.  DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE
   FRONTAL FORCING EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTES TO UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH
   ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI DURING THE AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING.

   TO THE SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY...DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
   APPEARS POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD ADVANCING DRYLINE
   DURING THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER
   INSTABILITY...AS NORTHWARD MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES.  THIS WILL
   BE AIDED BY GRADUAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
   ARKLATEX.  LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY
   THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO NOT OUT OF THE
   QUESTION...BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

   ...WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
   CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER THAN AREAS TO THE NORTH...BUT MODELS
   CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO UPPER TEXAS AND
   LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY...ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE
   SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS.  GIVEN ACCESS TO BETTER MOISTURE RETURN OFF
   THE GULF...AND GREATER POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...BOTH
   DURING INITIAL DEVELOPMENT...AND PERHAPS ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF ANY
   DEVELOPING STORM CLUSTER.

   ..KERR.. 03/26/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z