Apr 23, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook | |||||||||
Updated: Wed Apr 23 17:28:48 UTC 2014 ( | ) | |||||||||
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic | |||||||||
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Probabilistic Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 231726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO...MUCH OF AR AND INTO WRN TN...AND INTO NWRN MS AND NRN LA... ...SUMMARY... SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND THEN SPREAD EAST TOWARD WESTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI INTO THE EVENING THURSDAY. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ...SYNOPSIS... A STRONG MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH -- COMPRISED OF PHASED PIECES OF NRN- AND SRN-STREAM ENERGY -- WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD. THE SRN FEATURE WITHIN THIS TROUGH IN PARTICULAR WILL BE A FOCUS WITH RESPECT TO THE CONVECTIVE/SEVERE FORECAST FOR THE DAY 2 PERIOD...AS IT SHIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS AND CROSSES THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE IA/MO REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN THE MIDWEST STATES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS AND SEWD ACROSS AR/TX/LA THROUGH SUNSET. THIS BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS A ZONE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS -- WITH INTENSITY/SEVERE RISK PEAKING DIURNALLY ACROSS AR AND VICINITY. ...SERN MO/WRN TN SWWD INTO NRN LA... A MOISTENING AIRMASS IS PROGGED AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...AS SLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS ADVECT LOW 60S DEWPOINTS ACROSS AR AND INTO SERN MO. HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING IS FORECAST TO BE HINDERED BY ONGOING PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER...WHICH SHOULD BE SPREADING EWD TOWARD/INTO THE SLIGHT RISK AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...ONLY MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST -- PARTICULARLY INTO CENTRAL AND NRN AR AND ADJACENT SERN MO WHERE STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT /ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE UPPER VORT MAX/ IS PROGGED TO EXIST. THAT BEING SAID...THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED STRONG/COMPACT JET STREAK IS SUGGESTIVE OF SEVERE RISK DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THOUGH SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS...IT APPEARS THAT A LINEAR MODE WILL BE FAVORED AND THUS DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK. A TORNADO OR TWO...HOWEVER...CANNOT BE RULED OUT -- EITHER WITHIN THE BROADER CONVECTIVE LINE OR WITH ANY ISOLATED STORM AHEAD OF THE LINE. SEVERE-SIZED HAIL WOULD APPEAR TO BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK...WHERE SOMEWHAT GREATER DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT. GIVEN THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMICS ANTICIPATED...STORMS SHOULD SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG DIURNAL PEAK IN INTENSITY...WITH WEAKENING CONVECTION AND THUS DIMINISHING SEVERE RISK LIKELY BY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES E OF THE MS VALLEY. ..GOSS.. 04/23/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z |