May 1, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu May 1 05:58:50 UTC 2014 (20140501 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140501 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140501 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140501 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 010556

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1256 AM CDT THU MAY 01 2014

   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...AS WELL
   AS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS. SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL
   OVERSPREAD TX AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH LATE
   FRIDAY...WITH A PRECEDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   TSTM POTENTIAL ACROSS FL AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. SEVERAL LOWER
   AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ALSO OVERSPREAD THE UPPER
   MIDWEST/NORTHEAST STATES. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
   WESTERN STATES WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

   ...FL...
   SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
   ALONG/SOUTH OF THE SLOW-MOVING OR STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
   THE FL PENINSULA. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE RELATIVELY
   MOIST...WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT UPDRAFT VIGOR/SEVERE
   POTENTIAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...AS UPSTREAM TROUGH
   AMPLIFICATION OCCURS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...CURRENT
   THINKING IS THAT TSTMS COULD REACH OR AT LEAST APPROACH THE WESTERN
   FL PENINSULA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
   WELL-ORGANIZED/STRONG.

   ...NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/NORTHERN ROCKIES...
   VERY ISOLATED TSTMS MAY OCCUR PARTICULARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
   THE REGION. WHILE MOISTURE/BUOYANCY WILL BE LIMITED...SUFFICIENT
   MOISTURE/STEEP LAPSE RATES COINCIDENT WITH A SOUTHWARD-MOVING FRONT
   AND BREAKDOWN OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES RIDGE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS
   RELATIVELY LIMITED TSTM POTENTIAL.

   ...WI...
   TIED TO AN AMPLIFYING/CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A LIMITED
   POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TSTMS MAY EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI...PRIMARILY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE
   SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS ASIDE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   APPEAR MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION POTENTIALLY ATTAINING A
   SUFFICIENT DEPTH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION/TSTM POTENTIAL.

   ..GUYER.. 05/01/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z