SPC AC 010556
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT THU MAY 01 2014
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...AS WELL
AS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL
OVERSPREAD TX AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY...WITH A PRECEDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
TSTM POTENTIAL ACROSS FL AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. SEVERAL LOWER
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ALSO OVERSPREAD THE UPPER
MIDWEST/NORTHEAST STATES. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
...FL...
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE SLOW-MOVING OR STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE RELATIVELY
MOIST...WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT UPDRAFT VIGOR/SEVERE
POTENTIAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...AS UPSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION OCCURS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT TSTMS COULD REACH OR AT LEAST APPROACH THE WESTERN
FL PENINSULA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
WELL-ORGANIZED/STRONG.
...NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/NORTHERN ROCKIES...
VERY ISOLATED TSTMS MAY OCCUR PARTICULARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE REGION. WHILE MOISTURE/BUOYANCY WILL BE LIMITED...SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE/STEEP LAPSE RATES COINCIDENT WITH A SOUTHWARD-MOVING FRONT
AND BREAKDOWN OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES RIDGE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS
RELATIVELY LIMITED TSTM POTENTIAL.
...WI...
TIED TO AN AMPLIFYING/CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TSTMS MAY EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI...PRIMARILY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS ASIDE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
APPEAR MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION POTENTIALLY ATTAINING A
SUFFICIENT DEPTH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION/TSTM POTENTIAL.
..GUYER.. 05/01/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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