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| Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 211726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2014 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PART OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PART OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PART OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PART OF THE TN VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND FROM PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO TENNESSEE VALLEY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. ...SYNOPSIS... CUTOFF MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FILL AS IT SINKS SWD TOWARDS THE LOWER CO VALLEY. A STOUT MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE CNTRL GULF COAST...WITH A RIDGE EMANATING NWWD TO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO SHOULD SLOWLY SLIDE SEWD TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...WITH TRAILING PORTION OVER THE TN VALLEY TO KS. ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... WITH PREDOMINATELY MERIDIONAL DEEP-LAYER WINDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...GRADUAL MOISTENING AMIDST WEAK LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL FAVOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS FORMING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LARGELY EVOLVE N/NEWD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB WILL LIKELY BE ANEMIC AS GRADIENT FLOW SUBSIDES. BUT MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL ELYS N OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT...COULD SUPPORT A FEW MULTICELL UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND. THE STRONGEST 500 MB WINDS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS /UP TO AROUND 30 KT/ SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS PARTS OF SERN NM/FAR W TX ON THU AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT MULTICELL TO WEAK SUPERCELL STRUCTURES PRODUCING ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND. ...MID-ATLANTIC STATES... NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL W/NWLYS WITH STRONG SPEED SHEAR WILL FAVOR ELONGATED STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS...RENDERING POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. THE NAM IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE NRN PORTION OF THE FRONT...WITH MOIST ABSOLUTELY UNSTABLE LAYERS INDICATED IN SOUNDINGS. OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE MORE MARGINAL WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY. STILL...WITH SURFACE HEATING OF MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S AND AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT...WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND. ...TN VALLEY... ON THE ERN EDGE OF A REMNANT PLAINS EML PLUME...ROBUST SURFACE HEATING WITH PROBABLE MIDDLE 60S DEW POINTS ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE REACHING 2000-3000 J/KG. THIS REGION SHOULD LIE ON THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER THE OH VALLEY TO CNTRL APPALACHIANS. LIMITED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT RENDERS UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. STILL...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES GIVEN A FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF CAPE/SHEAR IN THIS CORRIDOR. ..GRAMS.. 05/21/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z |