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| Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 240538 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHER MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EWD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A LEE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS ERN NM WITH BACKED SELY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 55 TO 60 F RANGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SEVERAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/MON FROM AMARILLO TX SWD TO MIDLAND TX SHOW MLCAPE IN THE 1200 TO 1800 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...0-6 KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 40 KT WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. THE HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST WITH CELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE. CELLS THAT ORGANIZE INTO SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS MAY HAVE WIND DAMAGE AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ...NRN PLAINS... WEST TO SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SUNDAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S F...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOMEWHAT WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE...0-3 KM LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE STEEP WITH VALUES AROUND 8.0 C/KM. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS. ...TN VALLEY/ERN GULF COAST STATES/NRN-CNTRL FL... A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM THE TN VALLEY SWD INTO THE ERN GULF COAST STATES. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 60S F ALONG THE BOUNDARY...ENABLING THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR PROFILES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..BROYLES.. 05/24/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z |