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| Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 070531 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 AM CDT SAT JUN 07 2014 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHERN MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ...SYNOPSIS... QUASI-ZONAL/LOW AMPLITUDE W/NW FLOW OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WILL AMPLIFY ON SUNDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A NEARLY STATIONARY W-E ORIENTED SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO CNTRL AR AND NRN MS/AL...SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE UPSCALE GROWTH RESULTS IN ONE OR MORE OVERNIGHT MCS/S ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS TO NRN MS/AL... UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF SEVERE THREAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO OR THREE DAYS...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ON SATURDAY/DAY 1 WILL INFLUENCE WHERE EXACTLY SFC BOUNDARIES SETTLE TO FOCUS DEVELOPMENT ON DAY 2/SUNDAY. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A W-E ORIENTED STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED SOUTH OF ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF TX/OK IN THE VICINITY OF E-CENTRAL NM TO ALONG THE RED RIVER INTO CENTRAL AR AND NRN MS/AL. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND BEGINS TO EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG/TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND ALSO NEAR THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA AS AN EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS /DEWPOINTS MID 60S TO LOW 70S F/ IS FORECAST NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. AS SFC HEATING OCCURS...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ADEQUATE 0-6KM SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...INITIALLY IN MOIST UPSLOPE E/SELY FLOW ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO W TX. IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ACROSS NRN MS/AL WHERE A LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL OVERSPREAD THAT REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES DURING THE EVENING...STORMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MCS/S TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN CO/WRN NEB ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO AN MCS OVERNIGHT AND TRACK EWD ACROSS PARTS OF NEB/KS AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW EJECTS EWD AND A SFC COLD FRONT DROPS S/SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...BUT ADEQUATE...AND COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES...SOME STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF MARGINAL HAIL/WIND ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ..LEITMAN.. 06/07/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z |