SPC AC 100536

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1236 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
   GULF COAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
   STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
   STRONGER STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW OVER IL WILL LIFT NE...BECOMING ABSORBED BY
   THE PARENT TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
   EJECTING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO
   VALLEY...DEEP SOUTH AND MID-ATLANTIC...WHERE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. 

   FURTHER TO THE NW...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE NRN ROCKIES
   WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD
   THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL INDUCE SFC LEE LOW
   DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT...S/SELY LOW
   LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE
   PLAINS AHEAD OF A SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. AS A SFC COLD FRONT
   DROPS SEWD THROUGH THE NRN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THUNDERSTORMS
   ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS
   COULD BE STRONG/SEVERE.

   ...PORTIONS OF THE NRN GULF COAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...

   MODELS VARY GREATLY WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF THE EWD ADVANCING
   UPPER TROUGH AND EVOLUTION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. THE OVERALL
   ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH
   MIDLEVEL FLOW GENERALLY WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS /EXCEPT PERHAPS
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY/...COUPLED WITH EXPECTED ONGOING
   PRECIPITATION/WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER LIMITING LAPSE
   RATES/DESTABILIZATION. WHERE POCKETS OF HEATING LEAD TO MODEST
   DESTABILIZATION...GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS. FURTHER
   SOUTH ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN GULF COAST...LAPSE RATES MAY BE A BIT
   BETTER THAN FURTHER NORTH OVER THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND SOME MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

   ...PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM CNTRL/ERN VA INTO SC...

   UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST COAST WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EWD IN TANDEM
   WITH THE EWD PROGRESSING UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT
   IN SOME WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AS A SHORTWAVE
   IMPULSE ROTATES OUT OF THE UPPER TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. STEEP
   LAPSE RATES ATOP A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /DEW POINTS UPPER 60S
   TO LOW 70S F/ AND STRONG SFC HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO
   STRONG INSTABILITY BY MIDDAY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH
   FROM CNTRL VA SWD THROUGH THE NC PIEDMONT INTO SC. WHILE DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG /RESULTING IN MORE PULSE TYPE
   STORMS/...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
   STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. PW VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES AND WEAK LOW
   LEVEL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WET DOWNBURST THREAT AS WELL.

   ...PORTIONS OF THE MID-MO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...

   CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF SE ND/WRN MN/NE SD ALONG A
   SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AMONGST GUIDANCE
   AS TO WHERE EXACTLY THIS FRONT WILL BE LOCATED WEDNESDAY
   MORNING...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AT LEAST MODEST SFC HEATING
   SHOULD OCCUR DOWNSTREAM OF THE FRONT FROM SW MN INTO SE SD...AND
   THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO POOR LAPSE RATES...BUT ADEQUATE
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 F/ AND
   WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN SOME GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL.

   BETTER SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES ATOP MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
   LEAD TO STRONG INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS CNTRL/ERN NEB/KS. AS
   SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE ROCKIES...SCATTERED
   STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL INTO
   ERN NEB AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
   MAY ALSO DEVELOP FURTHER W ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF SE WY/ERN
   CO/WRN KS IN VICINITY OF LEE TROUGH AND SFC DRYLINE. STORMS MAY
   BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED BY EVENING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SEWD AND A
   SLY LLJ INCREASES. THIS COULD LEAD TO ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM
   CLUSTERS OR MCS/S FROM ERN NEB S/SW INTO NW OK. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS OVER THE PLAINS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
   WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF THESE SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES /COLD FRONT
   AND EJECTING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES/. FURTHERMORE...WEAKER DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT FURTHER SOUTH MAY KEEP THUNDERSTORMS
   FAIRLY ISOLATED. WHILE A SEVERE THREAT EXISTS...QUESTIONS REGARDING
   COVERAGE AND EXACTLY WHERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP WILL PRECLUDE AN
   UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME.

   ..LEITMAN.. 06/10/2014

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