Jun 11, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jun 11 06:04:47 UTC 2014 (20140611 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140611 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140611 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 59,683 8,860,208 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
Probabilistic Graphic
20140611 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 28,014 7,626,899 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
15 % 59,846 8,905,400 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
5 % 244,658 37,163,770 Austin, TX...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...
   SPC AC 110519

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1219 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SE OK/NE TX INTO SW AR/NW
   LA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
   OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST
   LOUISIANA ON THURSDAY. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
   THREATS WITH STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STRONG
   STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO WESTERN
   NEW YORK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
   THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EASTERN GULF COAST WILL
   CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY AS
   IT MERGES WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE MIGRATING ACROSS THE UPPER
   MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
   TRACK FROM OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.
   IN THE WAKE OF THESE FEATURES...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
   PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN
   STATES. 

   AT THE SFC...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER SW OK. AS THE LOW
   TRACKS EWD ALONG THE RED RIVER...A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD FROM
   CNTRL OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE INTO ERN OK AND CNTRL TX BY LATE
   AFTERNOON. AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
   PERIOD...MOVING E/SE FROM SE KS/NE OK INTO ERN OK/WRN AR. THE EWD
   ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MCS WILL BE THE
   FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM S-CNTRL OK/N-CNTRL TX INTO THE ARKLATEX.

   ELSEWHERE...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
   MID-ATLANTIC INTO PARTS WRN NY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH
   CONTINUES TO SHIFT E OVER THE REGION.

   ...S-CNTRL OK/N-CNTRL TX INTO WRN/SRN AR AND NE LA...

   AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF SE KS INTO NRN/ERN
   OK DURING THE MORNING. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST MIDLEVEL FLOW
   MAY POSE A MARGINAL WIND THREAT WITH THIS EARLY CONVECTION.
   HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE
   DURING THIS AFTERNOON.

   BY AFTERNOON...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL BE EJECTING FROM THE
   SRN ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PLAINS WITH MODEST NW MIDLEVEL FLOW
   OVERSPREADING THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
   THIS WILL FOCUS FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE E/SEWD
   ADVANCING COLD FRONT...AND ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED BY
   ONGOING MCS OVER ERN OK. AHEAD OF THE FRONT/S OF MCS...STEEP LOW TO
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST BENEATH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EWD
   FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL TRANSPORT EML ACROSS
   CNTRL TX...NOSING INTO N-CNTRL TX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
   CAPPING WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING OVERCOME EAST OF THE I-35
   CORRIDOR FROM S-CNTRL OK INTO N-CNTRL TX DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THE
   PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MIDLEVEL WARMING. STRONG SFC HEATING WITH
   HIGHS NEAR 90 F AND RICH GULF MOISTURE /DEW POINTS FROM MID 60S TO
   NEAR 70 F/ BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES
   GREATER THAN 2500 J/KG. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
   MAY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND SPREAD EWD
   TOWARD THE ARKLATEX INTO EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER
   N TX WHERE BEST COMBO OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
   INSTABILITY WILL EXIST...AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
   THIS CONVECTION MAY TRY TO ORGANIZE INTO A LINE WITH EWD EXTENT.
   BUT...THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS MIDLEVEL FLOW GENERALLY WEAKENS
   AFTER 00Z AND LLJ IS NOT FORECAST TO BE VERY STRONG. SOME
   UNCERTAINTY IN EVOLUTION OF THE THREAT DOES EXIST...NAMELY IF ANY
   MORNING CONVECTION OR THICK CLOUD COVER FROM MCS DEVELOPS ACROSS
   THIS AREA...THEN SEVERE THREAT COULD BE DIMINISHED DURING THE
   AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK.

   ...NC PIEDMONT NWD TO LOWER GREAT LAKES...

   WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FROM THE NC
   PIEDMONT N/NE ACROSS PA AND WRN NY IN VICINITY OF A SFC TROUGH AS
   UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE REGION.
   LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY BE POOR OVER THE REGION DUE TO LIMITED
   SFC HEATING AND AT LEAST SOME ONGOING CONVECTION. MLCAPE VALUES LESS
   THAN 1000 J/KG ARE EXPECTED. STRONGER MIDLEVEL FLOW /25-35 KT AT 700
   MB/ ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD MAINLY NRN VA
   NORTHWARD INTO WRN NY. THIS COULD AID IN SOME GUSTY WINDS...THOUGH
   THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE
   PIEDMONT...WEAKER DEEP LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED...BUT RICHER BOUNDARY
   LAYER MOISTURE AND POCKETS OF BETTER HEATING WILL LEAD TO AN
   ISOLATED THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS IN THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS.

   ..LEITMAN.. 06/11/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z