Jun 11, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook | |||||||||||||||||
Updated: Wed Jun 11 06:04:47 UTC 2014 ( | ) | |||||||||||||||||
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic | |||||||||||||||||
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Probabilistic Graphic | |||||||||||||||||
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 110519 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1219 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SE OK/NE TX INTO SW AR/NW LA... ...SUMMARY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA ON THURSDAY. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. ...SYNOPSIS... THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EASTERN GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY AS IT MERGES WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE MIGRATING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THESE FEATURES...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. AT THE SFC...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER SW OK. AS THE LOW TRACKS EWD ALONG THE RED RIVER...A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD FROM CNTRL OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE INTO ERN OK AND CNTRL TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...MOVING E/SE FROM SE KS/NE OK INTO ERN OK/WRN AR. THE EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MCS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM S-CNTRL OK/N-CNTRL TX INTO THE ARKLATEX. ELSEWHERE...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO PARTS WRN NY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT E OVER THE REGION. ...S-CNTRL OK/N-CNTRL TX INTO WRN/SRN AR AND NE LA... AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF SE KS INTO NRN/ERN OK DURING THE MORNING. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST MIDLEVEL FLOW MAY POSE A MARGINAL WIND THREAT WITH THIS EARLY CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE DURING THIS AFTERNOON. BY AFTERNOON...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL BE EJECTING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PLAINS WITH MODEST NW MIDLEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADING THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL FOCUS FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE E/SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT...AND ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED BY ONGOING MCS OVER ERN OK. AHEAD OF THE FRONT/S OF MCS...STEEP LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST BENEATH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EWD FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL TRANSPORT EML ACROSS CNTRL TX...NOSING INTO N-CNTRL TX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPPING WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING OVERCOME EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM S-CNTRL OK INTO N-CNTRL TX DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THE PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MIDLEVEL WARMING. STRONG SFC HEATING WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 F AND RICH GULF MOISTURE /DEW POINTS FROM MID 60S TO NEAR 70 F/ BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 2500 J/KG. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND SPREAD EWD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX INTO EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER N TX WHERE BEST COMBO OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL EXIST...AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THIS CONVECTION MAY TRY TO ORGANIZE INTO A LINE WITH EWD EXTENT. BUT...THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS MIDLEVEL FLOW GENERALLY WEAKENS AFTER 00Z AND LLJ IS NOT FORECAST TO BE VERY STRONG. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EVOLUTION OF THE THREAT DOES EXIST...NAMELY IF ANY MORNING CONVECTION OR THICK CLOUD COVER FROM MCS DEVELOPS ACROSS THIS AREA...THEN SEVERE THREAT COULD BE DIMINISHED DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK. ...NC PIEDMONT NWD TO LOWER GREAT LAKES... WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FROM THE NC PIEDMONT N/NE ACROSS PA AND WRN NY IN VICINITY OF A SFC TROUGH AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY BE POOR OVER THE REGION DUE TO LIMITED SFC HEATING AND AT LEAST SOME ONGOING CONVECTION. MLCAPE VALUES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG ARE EXPECTED. STRONGER MIDLEVEL FLOW /25-35 KT AT 700 MB/ ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD MAINLY NRN VA NORTHWARD INTO WRN NY. THIS COULD AID IN SOME GUSTY WINDS...THOUGH THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WEAKER DEEP LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED...BUT RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND POCKETS OF BETTER HEATING WILL LEAD TO AN ISOLATED THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS IN THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS. ..LEITMAN.. 06/11/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z |