Jun 20, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook | |||||||||||||
Updated: Fri Jun 20 04:39:35 UTC 2014 ( | ) | |||||||||||||
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic | |||||||||||||
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Probabilistic Graphic | |||||||||||||
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 200439 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE ACROSS COASTAL CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. ...CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS EXTENDING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY... SUBTLE FLATTENING OF UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS MAY INDUCE A WEAK BRANCH OF LLJ THAT WILL VEER ACROSS NRN MO INTO WRN IL DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION...DRIVEN BY THIS WARM ADVECTION...COULD BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER. OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE CONVECTION THAT EVOLVES DURING THE DAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS ALONG WIND SHIFT THAT WILL EXTEND ACROSS NWRN IL...SWWD INTO NWRN MO. WHILE DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...AFOREMENTIONED FLATTENING...INDICATING A POSSIBLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...MAY ENHANCE TSTM POTENTIAL WITHIN A FAIRLY MOIST/BUOYANT AIRMASS AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 80S. SCT MULTI-CELL STORMS CAPABLE OF GENERATING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN IA/NRN MO INTO CNTRL IL. FARTHER WEST...STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM SERN MT...SWD INTO KS. CONVERGENT ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE IN SUSTAINING DEEP THERMALS WITHIN A MODESTLY SHEARED WNWLY FLOW REGIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF SD/NEBRASKA EXHIBIT VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT AND 30-40KT SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR. SCT SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE THEN TRACK SEWD BEFORE MERGING INTO MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS NORTH OF WIND SHIFT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND WIND ARE THE GREATEST RISKS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ...COASTAL CAROLINAS AND SERN VA... SRN INFLUENCE OF WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD CLIP SERN VA/NRN NC AROUND 18Z WITH 20KT+ 500MB FLOW POSSIBLE TO NEAR THE SC BORDER. STRONG HEATING ALONG LEE TROUGH SHOULD PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE IN FOCUSING CONVECTION THAT SHOULD PROPAGATE ESEWD TOWARD THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING. HAIL/WIND ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS CONVECTION. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES ARE A BIT TOO WEAK TO WARRANT HIGHER SEVERE PROBS AT THIS TIME. ..DARROW.. 06/20/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z |