SPC AC 200439

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1139 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS
   INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING INTO
   THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE ACROSS
   COASTAL CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.

   ...CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS EXTENDING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...

   SUBTLE FLATTENING OF UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS MAY INDUCE A
   WEAK BRANCH OF LLJ THAT WILL VEER ACROSS NRN MO INTO WRN IL DURING
   THE DAY SATURDAY.  ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION...DRIVEN BY THIS
   WARM ADVECTION...COULD BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
   ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER.  OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE CONVECTION
   THAT EVOLVES DURING THE DAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS ALONG WIND SHIFT
   THAT WILL EXTEND ACROSS NWRN IL...SWWD INTO NWRN MO.  WHILE
   DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY
   STRONG...AFOREMENTIONED FLATTENING...INDICATING A POSSIBLE
   SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...MAY ENHANCE TSTM POTENTIAL WITHIN A FAIRLY
   MOIST/BUOYANT AIRMASS AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 80S.  SCT
   MULTI-CELL STORMS CAPABLE OF GENERATING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN IA/NRN MO INTO CNTRL IL.

   FARTHER WEST...STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
   HIGH PLAINS FROM SERN MT...SWD INTO KS.  CONVERGENT ELY LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE IN SUSTAINING DEEP THERMALS WITHIN A
   MODESTLY SHEARED WNWLY FLOW REGIME.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY LATE
   AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF SD/NEBRASKA EXHIBIT VEERING WIND
   PROFILES WITH HEIGHT AND 30-40KT SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR.  SCT SUPERCELLS
   SHOULD EVOLVE THEN TRACK SEWD BEFORE MERGING INTO MULTIPLE
   THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS NORTH OF WIND SHIFT DURING THE OVERNIGHT
   HOURS.  LARGE HAIL AND WIND ARE THE GREATEST RISKS WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY.

   ...COASTAL CAROLINAS AND SERN VA...

   SRN INFLUENCE OF WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD CLIP SERN VA/NRN NC
   AROUND 18Z WITH 20KT+ 500MB FLOW POSSIBLE TO NEAR THE SC BORDER. 
   STRONG HEATING ALONG LEE TROUGH SHOULD PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE IN
   FOCUSING CONVECTION THAT SHOULD PROPAGATE ESEWD TOWARD THE COAST BY
   EARLY EVENING.  HAIL/WIND ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS
   CONVECTION.  FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES ARE A BIT TOO WEAK TO WARRANT
   HIGHER SEVERE PROBS AT THIS TIME.

   ..DARROW.. 06/20/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z