SPC AC 061712

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1212 PM CDT SUN JUL 06 2014

   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MO AND UPPER MS
   VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   POCKETS OF SEVERE HAIL AND WIND ARE EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
   AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
   INTO NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF
   SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS SERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN
   IOWA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...AND NORTHERN MISSOURI.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NRN PLAINS
   EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN STATES...WITH PRIMARY SHORTWAVE
   DEVELOPING SEWD ACROSS SD...MN...IA AND NEB BY 00Z. THIS SHORTWAVE
   WILL REINFORCE THE SURFACE FRONT WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASING
   FROM SRN MN INTO WI DURING THE EVENING. SRN PORTIONS OF THIS FRONT
   WILL SINK SWD TO AROUND THE NEB/KS BORDER BY 00Z...WITH STRONG
   INSTABILITY DEVELOPING FROM THIS BOUNDARY SEWD ACROSS MO AND INTO
   THE OH VALLEY WHERE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 F DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN. 

   FARTHER E...A WSWLY FLOW REGIME WILL BRING MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
   NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH A
   LOW-AMPLITUDE LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   STORMS WITH A WIND THREAT FROM ERN OH/PA INTO NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
   DURING THE DAY.

   ...NEB...KS...SRN IA...MO...
   A FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE SRN NEB/NRN KS BORDER INTO NWRN
   MO...WITH VERY STRONG HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING
   ACROSS KS...AND AN AXIS OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHELTERED ALONG THE
   BOUNDARY. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE MUTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT BY
   LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE ON THE
   SRN PERIPHERY OF THE NRN PLAINS TROUGH...AND THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
   INCREASE OUT OF THE SW. GIVEN THE WELL-MIXED AIR MASS TO THE
   SW...CAPPING SHOULD BE BREACHED IN AN ELEVATED SENSE ALONG THE
   FRONT...WITH AN MCS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACROSS SERN NEB AND NERN
   KS...THEN DEVELOPING SEWD ACROSS SRN IA AND NRN MO DURING THE
   EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BOTH BE LIKELY. LATER
   OUTLOOKS MAY BE ABLE TO DELINEATE A CORRIDOR OF SIGNIFICANT WIND
   DAMAGE POTENTIAL AS PREDICTABILITY INCREASES.

   ...SRN MN...WRN WI..NRN IA...
   LIFT WILL INCREASE AS A RELATIVELY INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
   INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. COOL TEMPERATURES
   ALOFT SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR THE LOWER-THETAE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE
   IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE. THE
   LONG HODOGRAPHS MAY FAVOR SPLITTING CELLS WITH ANY TORNADO THREAT
   LIKELY BRIEF AND WEAK WITH SUCH MARGINAL SRH.

   ...OH VALLEY NEWD INTO NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND...
   SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WIND WILL DEVELOP OVER A
   LARGE AREA FROM THE OH VALLEY NEWD. ONGOING RAIN/STORMS ARE EXPECTED
   ACROSS OH/LAKE ERIE EARLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEADING SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE NEWD WITH AN INCREASE IN STORM
   INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON FROM PA INTO NY AND VT/NH.
   STRENGTHENING MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS SUGGEST A FEW SMALL BOWS
   CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST. HOWEVER...THE MORE
   RIGHTWARD-MOVING CELLS MAY GAIN SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AS THE
   MOVE OFF THE HODOGRAPH...WITH AN INCREASED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL.

   ...SRN AZ...
   STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF AZ WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY
   WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH LARGE INVERTED-V PROFILES IN THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER. STORMS WILL FORM OVER ACROSS MUCH OF SERN AZ...WITH WEAK ELY
   MID-LEVEL WINDS PERHAPS HELPING A FEW STORMS TO PROPAGATE WITH
   ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE WIND GUSTS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

   ..JEWELL.. 07/06/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z