Jul 23, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook | |||||||||||||
Updated: Wed Jul 23 05:57:56 UTC 2014 ( | ) | |||||||||||||
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic | |||||||||||||
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Probabilistic Graphic | |||||||||||||
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 230557 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE WRN DAKOTAS AND ERN MT... ...SUMMARY... SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. ...SYNOPSIS... A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL IMPINGE ON THE NRN PLAINS/CANADIAN PRAIRIES RIDGE AS IT REACHES THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN SRN ROCKIES BY EARLY FRI. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON SPEED...AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH E/SE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS. FARTHER E...A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS SE CANADA INTO THE ERN CONUS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE SOUTHEAST. ...NRN PLAINS... A RELATIVELY NARROW PLUME OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS IS ANTICIPATED TO BE CENTERED FROM CNTRL KS INTO WRN/CNTRL ND THU AFTERNOON. WITH VERY STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES...NEAR 9 DEG C/KM FROM 700-500 MB...POTENTIAL BUOYANCY SHOULD BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON SPATIOTEMPORAL DETAILS WITH WHERE TSTM INITIATION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT /ECMWF REMAINING FARTHER W IN ERN MT/. FORCING FOR ASCENT THROUGH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME INHIBITION AND YIELD AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS WHICH MAY CONGEAL INTO A CLUSTER WITH SEVERE WIND/HAIL. THE ERN EXTENT OF THE RISK THU EVENING SHOULD BE LIMITED BY SUBSTANTIAL MLCIN. ...PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... A BELT OF ENHANCED MID/UPPER-LEVEL W/SWLYS IS EXPECTED TO OVERLAP THE REMAINING PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR THROUGH THU EVENING. WITH AROUND 30-35 KT FLOW AT 500 MB...SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND SEA BREEZE MAY BECOME SEMI-ORGANIZED WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD DISCOURAGE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WIND RISK. ..GRAMS.. 07/23/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z |