SPC AC 301723

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1223 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
   PLAINS...MID MO VALLEY AND UPPER MS VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT
   SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM MINNESOTA SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS
   NORTHWESTERN IOWA...EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO KANSAS.  LARGE
   HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY.

   ...MID MO VALLEY AND UPPER MS VALLEY...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN ROCKIES
   AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SFC...A SHARPLY DEFINED
   COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS WITH
   SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS
   SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
   BY AFTERNOON FROM NRN KS EXTENDING NEWD THROUGH ERN NEB INTO WRN IA
   AND SRN MN. A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN THE MORNING IS FORECAST TO
   WEAKEN BY LATE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED STORM INITIATION
   ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

   FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE INSTABILITY CORRIDOR FROM OMAHA NEB
   NNEWD TO MINNEAPOLIS MN FOR 00Z/MONDAY SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE
   WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.0 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH
   0-6K SHEAR AROUND 40 KT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
   LARGE HAIL. HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL
   ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DURING THE LATE
   AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH THE
   MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INCREASE 0-3 KM STORM
   RELATIVE HELICITIES INTO THE 350 TO 400 M2/S2 RANGE SUGGESTING AN
   ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. IN ADDITION...STRONG
   LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR
   LINEAR ORGANIZATION WHERE STORMS CAN MERGE TOGETHER. THIS WILL MAKE
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
   EARLY EVENING.

   ...CNTRL PLAINS...
   THE SRN EXTENSION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL
   HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SFC...A LOW WILL DEEPEN ACROSS WRN KS
   SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD ACROSS
   THE REGION. SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
   THE LOWER TO MID 60S F WHICH SHOULD ENABLE MODERATE INSTABILITY TO
   DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE
   ALONG THE FRONT AS THE CAP WEAKENS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

   FORECAST SOUNDINGS JUST TO THE NORTH THE SFC LOW AT SALINA KS FOR
   00Z/MONDAY SHOW MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 35
   KT. THIS ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.0 C/KM SHOULD BE
   FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE
   HELICITIES OF 300 TO 350 M2/S2 SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED
   TORNADO THREAT WITH THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS. A THREAT FOR
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS LINE SEGMENTS ORGANIZE
   ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING. A SHARP CUTOFF IN THE
   SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST FROM CNTRL KS SWD INTO OK WHERE A STRONG
   CAPPING INVERSION IS FORECAST.

   ..BROYLES.. 08/30/2014

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