SPC AC 040426

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1126 PM CDT WED SEP 03 2014

   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW STRONG...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO
   THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS.

   ...LOWER GREAT LAKES TO OZARK PLATEAU...

   NRN PLAINS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
   DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.  IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...SFC PRESSURES
   WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS FORCING A COLD FRONT INTO LOWER MI BY
   18Z...SWWD ACROSS IL INTO SRN MO BEFORE TRAILING INTO THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS OF TX.  MID LEVEL FLOW OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
   GREAT LAKES WHERE 30KT 500MB FLOW SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS THE WARM
   SECTOR OF LOWER MI.  CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
   COLD FRONT ACROSS THIS REGION COULD POTENTIALLY ORGANIZE INTO
   MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS...ESPECIALLY IF ASCENT WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
   REGION OF MID LEVEL JET TIMES FAVORABLY WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
    AT THIS TIME WILL INTRODUCE 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR
   HAIL/WIND WITH MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS.  IF HIGHER SEVERE
   PROBS ARE NEEDED IT WOULD SEEM TO BE AREAS OF LOWER MI INTO PERHAPS
   NRN INDIANA OR NWRN OH.

   FARTHER SW...WEAK DEEP LAYER FLOW SHOULD PREVENT MEANINGFUL
   ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION THAT EVOLVES ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
   IL INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.  DIABATIC HEATING AND WEAK WARM
   ADVECTION ATOP FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE THREAT FROM
   LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

   ..DARROW.. 09/04/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z