SPC AC 191732

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1232 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN IL INTO SWRN LOWER
   MI...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF NRN MN...NWRN WI
   AND FAR ERN ND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY FROM NORTHERN
   ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
   WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS
   ALSO LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND VICINITY. A LOWER
   THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS ACROSS NEVADA AND WESTERN UTAH.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NRN PLAINS
   EWD INTO ERN CANADA WITH A LEADING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE FROM THE
   UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. A SFC
   TROUGH WILL TRAIL FROM A NEWD-MOVING SFC LOW...EXTENDING ROUGHLY
   FROM ERN UPPER MI INTO NRN MO BY 00Z. SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH
   WILL RESULT IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING
   SEVERE STORMS.

   TO THE NW...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SEWD OUT OF CANADA
   WITH THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF A CYCLONICALLY-CURVED JET MAX MOVING
   FORM ERN ND INTO CNTRL MN DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
   BE WEAK...VERY STRONG FORCING WITH THIS COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

   ELSEWHERE...A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
   WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER NV...BUT MOST LIKELY NON-SEVERE IN NATURE.

   ...LOWER MI INTO NRN IL...
   EARLY STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF MI WITHIN A PLUME OF
   HIGHER-THETAE AIR AND IN A ZONE OF INCREASING DIFFERENTIAL
   DIVERGENCE NEAR ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
   COULD CONTAIN HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. LATER IN THE DAY...HEATING
   WILL OCCUR UPSTREAM AND ALSO S OF ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MIGHT
   HAVE BEEN PRODUCED BY EARLIER STORMS. ALTHOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT
   WILL BE WEAK BY THIS POINT...THE COOL PROFILES ALOFT AND HEATING
   SHOULD EASILY MIX OUT ANY CAPPING INVERSION WITH MODERATE
   INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE
   OF LARGE HAIL AND A FEW SMALL BOWS WITH WIND DAMAGE APPEAR
   LIKELY...DEVELOPING ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR OTHER AREAS OF
   LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. RIGHT-MOVING CELLS WILL EXPERIENCE GREATER
   LEVELS OF SRH AND WITH A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE AS WELL CONDITIONAL
   ON SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE.

   ...ERN ND INTO MN AND NWRN WI...
   HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A VERY INTENSE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE
   OVER ND AT 18Z. THIS FRONT WILL SURGE SEWD...WHERE MUCAPE ON THE
   ORDER OF 500 J/KG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. LONG HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST A
   FORWARD-PROPAGATING LINE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE...AND
   LARGE AMOUNTS OF SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL GIVEN VERY COOL
   TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY. 

   ...NERN KS INTO NRN MO...
   MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
   TROUGH. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE WEAK...BUT ANY ISOLATED ACTIVITY THAT
   DEVELOPS MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

   ..JEWELL.. 09/19/2014

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