SPC AC 260431

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1131 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014

   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ...

   ...SUMMARY...
   STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN US
   WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS ARIZONA.

   ...SOUTHWESTERN U.S...

   UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO THE SAN JOAQUIN
   VALLEY BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.  THIS FEATURE WILL MIGRATE INTO SRN NV
   BY LATE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL SPEED MAX TRANSLATES INTO NWRN AZ. 
   LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE BACK EDGE OF A STRONG BAROCLINIC SYSTEM
   WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z WITH AMPLE WARM
   SECTOR MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FOR ROBUST CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   WARM CONVEYOR BEGINNING EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER DESERT REGIONS AND OVER THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN OF NWRN AZ DEPICT UNCAPPED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BY LATE
   MORNING.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
   THE PERIOD ALONG STRONGLY FORCED SEGMENT OF THE FRONT ACROSS SERN
   NV/NWRN AZ...WITH SWD DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BY 18Z INTO THE LOWER
   DESERTS OF AZ.  WITH 50KT+ 500MB SPEED MAX FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD
   THE COLD FRONT...SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE SEASONALLY STRONG AND
   SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED POTENTIALLY ROTATING STORMS.  ENVIRONMENTAL
   CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY IF
   BUOYANCY IS AT OR GREATER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.  LARGE
   HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE
   POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION.

   ...ELSEWHERE...

   SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN GULF BASIN
   INTO IMMEDIATE COASTAL REGIONS AND MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA.  POOR
   LAPSE RATES/SHEAR DO NOT FAVOR ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION.

   ..DARROW.. 09/26/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z