SPC AC 300453

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1153 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY AND
   CNTRL PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY WEDNESDAY.  LARGE
   HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED.

   ...CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY...

   WHILE NEUTRAL-WEAK HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF
   THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY. 
   LEE SFC CYCLONE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SWRN KS AND MOVE LITTLE THROUGH
   THE PERIOD...PERHAPS SHIFTING EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SHORT-WAVE
   TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  SLOWLY STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH
   SHOULD ALLOW HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO ADVANCE NWD BENEATH
   LLJ THAT WILL FOCUS OVER ERN KS INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  GIVEN
   THE LACK OF HEIGHT FALLS IT APPEARS MOST CONVECTION WILL BE DRIVEN
   BY LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START
   OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY WHERE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
   ROOTED AOA 850MB.  CLOUD LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT MULTI-CELL
   UPDRAFTS AND ELEVATED PARCELS MAY BE BUOYANT ENOUGH FOR MARGINAL
   SEVERE HAIL.  THIS EARLY MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD REINFORCE A
   PSEUDO-WARM FRONT WITH RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW EXPECTED TO ENHANCE ELY
   LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NEBRASKA AND PERHAPS EXTREME NRN KS.

   IT/S NOT CLEAR HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE DURING THE DAY ACROSS
   ERN KS/NEB AS PRE-DAWN TSTMS SHIFT EAST INTO IA/NRN MO.  IN THE
   ABSENCE OF STRONG UVV IT APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL PROVE
   INSTRUMENTAL IN SFC-BASED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 
   LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
   HEATING WILL BE NOTED ALONG DRY LINE FROM NWRN TX INTO WRN KS WHERE
   SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES COULD APPROACH DRY ADIABATIC BY 21Z.  THIS WILL
   WEAKEN THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR A THREAT OF TSTM INITIATION AHEAD OF
   SFC LOW.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NCNTRL KS NEAR THE
   AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW/PSEUDO-WARM FRONT EXHIBIT SUBSTANTIAL VEERING
   WITH HEIGHT AND SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR AOA 40KT.  IF DEW POINTS RISE
   INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S AS DEPICTED BY LATEST NAM THEN SUBSTANTIAL
   SBCAPE WILL EXIST ACROSS THIS REGION BY 21Z.  ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
   SHOULD EVOLVE THEN SPREAD/DEVELOP EAST AND NORTH INTO SERN NEB. 
   EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE MODE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
   THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS LIKELY EVOLVING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
   ALONG NOSE OF LLJ OVER THE MID MO VALLEY.  LARGE HAIL...A FEW
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED.

   ...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

   FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRY LINE ACROSS OK/TX...STRONG HEATING
   SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED...INITIALLY HIGH-BASED...TSTMS AFTER
   22Z.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LINGER UNTIL 04-05Z TIME FRAME BEFORE
   DISSIPATING OVER CNTRL OK.  VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD A PRONOUNCED
   SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD APPROACH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.  THERE IS
   SOME RISK CONVECTION COULD EVOLVE ALONG THE DRY LINE TOWARD 12Z BUT
   CAPPING IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE A BIT STRONG AND STORMS ARE MORE
   LIKELY TO EVOLVE DOWNSTREAM LATER IN THE DAY3 PERIOD.

   ..DARROW.. 09/30/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z