SPC AC 080431

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1031 PM CST FRI NOV 07 2014

   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA
   ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.  OTHERWISE...THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS
   ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE U.S. APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BROADLY CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH
   OF THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN U.S...ON THE SOUTHERN
   PERIPHERY OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW OF ARCTIC ORIGINS...WHICH IS FORECAST
   TO TURN SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
   NIGHT.  AT THE SAME TIME...A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EMERGING FROM THE
   NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE TRANSITION
   TO INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
   THROUGH THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES...WHICH MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
   PLAINS.  STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
   LIKELY WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LATTER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL PLAINS.  HOWEVER...LITTLE FURTHER MOISTENING
   IS ANTICIPATED...AS SUBSTANTIVE MID TO LOWER TROPOSPHERIC DRYING IS
   FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN...IN THE WAKE OF
   A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
   MEXICO TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

   ...FLORIDA...
   ALTHOUGH AN INITIAL WEAK SURFACE WAVE MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF
   MIGRATING WELL EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY 12Z SUNDAY...WITH
   THE UPPER IMPULSE LAGGING TO THE WEST...THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE
   MAY BE SLOW TO PROGRESS THROUGH SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. 
   GIVEN THE POSSIBLE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF THE FRONT...AND A MODESTLY
   MOIST...WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF IT...THE RISK FOR
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. 
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH MODERATE TO STRONG CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW
   COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.  HOWEVER...MUCH
   DEPENDS ON THE FRONTAL POSITION...WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN. 
   AND...GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT...SEVERE PROBABILITIES STILL APPEAR LESS THAN 5 PERCENT
   AT THE PRESENT TIME.

   ..KERR.. 11/08/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z