SPC AC 161730

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
   FL/SOUTH GA...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
   COASTAL SOUTHEAST STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
   FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTH GEORGIA TO THE EASTERN
   CAROLINAS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
   CONUS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER
   RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA/CONUS...WITH A SLOW-EASTWARD-SHIFTING
   LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES. A RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS
   PRECEDING AN EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...INCLUDING SOME SEVERE
   RISK.

   ...NORTHERN FL/SOUTH GA...
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING /60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ WILL CONTINUE TO
   OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN
   EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. AIDED BY THE WARM CONVEYOR...IT APPEARS
   THAT STRONGER-CALIBER STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS COULD BE
   ONGOING AROUND THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
   OF MEXICO/APALACHICOLA VICINITY MONDAY MORNING. THESE EARLY DAY
   STRONG/SEVERE STORMS COULD GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND ACROSS PARTS OF
   EASTERN FL PANHANDLE AND/OR THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA DURING THE
   DAY...WHILE OTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY DEVELOP/MATURE
   IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT WITHIN A SOMEWHAT
   LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SOUTH GA. THE
   INFLUENCE OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME
   SUPERCELL/SUSTAINED LINE SEGMENT POTENTIAL WITH AN ASSOCIATED
   DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO RISK...ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL
   BEGIN TO VEER DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO
   SPREAD AWAY THE REGION.

   ...EASTERN CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST VA...
   CONSIDERABLY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
   DURING THE DAY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A STEADY INFLUX OF GULF STREAM
   RELATED MOISTURE /LOW-MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ ACROSS THE
   COASTAL PLAIN/PIEDMONT AREAS OF THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST VA MONDAY.
   ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK...AFOREMENTIONED
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AS MUCH AS 500-1000 J/KG OF
   MLCAPE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. GIVEN
   THAT THESE STORMS WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY STRONG SHEAR
   ENVIRONMENT...AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL/MARGINAL RISK FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS/POSSIBLY A TORNADO WILL EXIST. PORTIONS OF THE REGION WILL BE
   REEVALUATED FOR A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD.

   ...COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC STATES/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
   AIDED BY ROBUST FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR...A STRONGLY
   FORCED/FAST-MOVING LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE MAY EVOLVE BY LATE
   MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. A FEW
   EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED WIND
   GUSTS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED...ALTHOUGH A RELATIVELY STABLE
   NEAR-SURFACE LAYER WILL TEND TO BE AN DETERRING FACTOR.

   ..GUYER.. 11/16/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z