Dec 15, 2014 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Dec 15 06:00:22 UTC 2014 (20141215 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20141215 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141215 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20141215 0700 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 150600

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1200 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH
   TUESDAY NIGHT.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW...WITHIN A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH THAT HAS EMERGED FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAY GENERALLY MAINTAIN
   STRENGTH WHILE PROGRESSING EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS
   OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ADJACENT OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z TUESDAY. 
   THEREAFTER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST IT MAY UNDERGO CONSIDERABLE
   DEFORMATION WHILE PIVOTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...AS AN
   ELONGATING UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW DIGS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
   REGION...TO THE SOUTH OF A PROMINENT NORTHERN STREAM HIGH CENTER
   SHIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES.  AS THIS IS
   OCCURRING...IT ALSO APPEARS THAT A SEPARATE IMPULSE WILL SPLIT OFF
   THE INITIAL PERTURBATION WHILE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
   COAST.  IN RESPONSE TO THESE DEVELOPMENTS...AN ASSOCIATED WEAKENING
   OCCLUDED SURFACE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD
   THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE A NEW SURFACE LOW
   BEGINS TO FORM ALONG A TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH/EAST OF LONG
   ISLAND.

   MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTHERN
   AMERICA...WHERE THE SPLIT BELTS OF STRONGER FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO
   REMAIN SOMEWHAT IN PHASE...AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGHING MAY
   PERSIST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  WITHIN THIS REGIME...IT DOES APPEAR
   THAT ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
   SOUTHERN STREAM...PROBABLY REACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY LATE
   TUESDAY NIGHT.

   ...APPALACHIANS INTO MID ATLANTIC COAST...
   MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT MID/UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD
   OF THE REMNANT CLOSED LOW MAY REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS AND EAST
   OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE DAY TUESDAY.  COUPLED WITH CONTINUING
   NORTHWARD MOISTURE ADVECTION...AT LEAST IN LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC
   LEVELS...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE SUFFICIENT
   STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES TO YIELD WEAK CAPE THROUGH THE FAVORABLE
   MIXED PHASE LAYER FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CHARGE SEPARATION.  WHILE
   THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ABOVE A FAIRLY DEEP NEAR SURFACE OR
   SURFACE BASED STABLE LAYER...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED WEAK
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   ...CALIFORNIA...
   VARIABILITY LINGERS AMONG THE MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES CONCERNING
   THE EVOLUTION OF THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  HOWEVER...THE
   ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME CONDUCIVE TO AT LEAST SCATTERED WEAK
   THUNDERSTORMS...WITHIN AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND
   FORECAST TO ADVANCE INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
   TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST WHILE SPREADING
   SOUTHWARD...INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
   TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE POST-FRONTAL
   REGIME...ALONG COASTAL AREAS.

   ..KERR.. 12/15/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z