SPC AC 261658

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1058 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST
   INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ON SATURDAY FROM THE COASTAL
   PLAINS OF TEXAS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES.  A FEW OF THE STRONGER
   STORMS MAY POSE AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THREAT.

   ...MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY...

   NEUTRAL-WEAK HEIGHT RISES WILL BE NOTED ALONG THE TX COAST INTO THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH EARLY EVENING DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD.  AS A
   RESULT...WARM ADVECTION WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AIDED IN PART BY WEAK DIABATIC HEATING. 
   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SFC FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM SRN
   AR...SWWD INTO SCNTRL TX BY 27/18Z ADVANCING SLOWLY EAST OF THE
   SABINE RIVER DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.  FORECAST LAPSE RATES
   ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL DESPITE THE WEAK DIABATIC HEATING
   AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT BUOYANCY FOR CONVECTION THAT EVOLVES ACROSS
   THE GRADUALLY MOISTENING WARM SECTOR.  WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
   EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUSTAINING ROTATING
   UPDRAFTS...WEAK BUOYANCY AND AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES SHOULD
   MINIMIZE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.  FOR THIS REASON HAVE MAINTAINED 5
   PERCENT SEVERE PROBS FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO WHERE MARITIME TROPICAL MOISTURE MANAGES TO ADVANCE
   INLAND...PRIMARILY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

   ..DARROW.. 12/26/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z