Jan 3, 2014 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Fri Jan 3 08:07:44 UTC 2014 (20140103 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20140103 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140103 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140103 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 030805

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0205 AM CST FRI JAN 03 2014

   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ON
   SUNDAY...WITH A COLD/DEEP VORTEX EVOLVING OVER EAST-CENTRAL CANADA
   AND THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST. SUCH A PATTERN WILL RESULT IN LITTLE OR
   NO TSTM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
   FL/COASTAL SOUTHEAST STATES.

   ...FL/COASTAL SOUTHEAST STATES...
   SOUTH OF A STEADILY DEEPENING OH VALLEY/NORTHEAST STATES SURFACE
   LOW...SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THE DAY 3 JUNCTURE REGARDING
   POSSIBLE SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
   CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST STATES IN VICINITY OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING STRONG
   COLD FRONT. THIS HAS RAMIFICATIONS ON THE AVAILABILITY/EXTENT OF
   INLAND/NEAR-COASTAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
   CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST GA. THAT SAID...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE
   PRIMARY TSTM POTENTIAL BE FOCUSED OFFSHORE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS
   OFF THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST STATES/FL...WITH LITTLE/IF ANY SEVERE
   POTENTIAL GIVEN THIS SCENARIO.

   ..GUYER.. 01/03/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z