Jan 6, 2014 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Mon Jan 6 06:45:47 UTC 2014 (20140106 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20140106 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140106 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140106 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 060642

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1242 AM CST MON JAN 06 2014

   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS ON
   WEDNESDAY WITH MULTIPLE SUBTLE LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS/SPEED
   MAXIMA MOVING OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. A
   CONSIDERABLY LIMITED TSTM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS
   GIVEN RESIDUAL COLD/CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES...WITH THE POSSIBLE
   EXCEPTIONS DETAILED BELOW.

   ...EAST TX TO LA/SOUTHERN AR...
   ALTHOUGH NUMERICAL GUIDANCE VARIABILITY EXISTS...AT LEAST A MARGINAL
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
   THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TX COAST/EAST TX INTO NORTHERN
   LA AND POSSIBLY FAR SOUTHERN AR. SOMEWHAT PENDING TIMING/PLACEMENT
   DETAILS OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSE OVER THE SOUTHERN
   ROCKIES...ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WEAK ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD
   SUPPORT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF WEAK ELEVATED
   BUOYANCY /850 MB AND ABOVE/ DOES MATERIALIZE /ESPECIALLY AS PER THE
   00Z NAM/...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WOULD BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
   EMBEDDED/ISOLATED TSTM POTENTIAL.

   ...FAR SOUTH FL...
   A FEW TSTMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE WATERS OFF THE SOUTH
   FL COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT IN VICINITY OF A
   NORTHWARD-SHIFTING MARITIME FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

   ..GUYER.. 01/06/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z