Mar 5, 2014 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Wed Mar 5 08:25:48 UTC 2014 (20140305 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20140305 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140305 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140305 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 050823

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0223 AM CST WED MAR 05 2014

   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
   A PROGRESSIVE MULTI-STREAM PATTERN WILL CHARACTERIZE THE MID LEVELS
   OVER THE CONUS. A STRONG...DEEP CYCLONE WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE
   SERN CONUS AND ADVANCE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC WATERS. AN ATTENDANT
   ELEVATED WARM SECTOR AND ASSOCIATED BUOYANCY COULD GRAZE PORTIONS OF
   COASTAL NC AND SC SUPPORTING SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES...THOUGH
   THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10
   PERCENT. ELSEWHERE...A WRN-CONUS TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY WHILE
   PROGRESSING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES. STEEP
   LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
   COINCIDE WITH ASCENT PRECEDING THE VORT MAX IN THE BASE OF THIS
   TROUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION AND
   VICINITY EWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES. SVR STORMS ARE
   NOT EXPECTED.

   ..COHEN.. 03/05/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z