SPC AC 140715
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AS A SFC LOW MOVES NEWD INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO BEFORE DAYBREAK...WITH THE STORMS MOVING
INLAND ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AND MOVE EWD FROM THE MS DELTA TO
THE FL PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY. AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES
ALONG THE MOIST AXIS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINEAR MCS APPEARS REASONABLE. THIS
IDEA IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE GFS...ECMWF AND NAM SOLUTIONS.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR A SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE INSTABILITY.
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD
LIMIT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NEAR MOBILE AL AND PENSACOLA FL AT 18Z TO 21Z SHOW SFC
DEWPOINTS NEAR 65 F AND SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS
COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 60 TO 65 KT RANGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD
OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE DUE TO THE STRONG
WIND FIELD AND VEERED UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES. A MARGINAL TORNADO
THREAT COULD ALSO DEVELOP WITH ROTATING STORMS WITHIN THE LINE OR
WITH DISCRETE CELLS THAT INITIATE WELL OUT AHEAD.
ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IS FORECAST FROM SUNDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DIFFERENT CONCERNING THE
TIMING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS ALONG WITH INSTABILITY
CONCERNS ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST. FOR THAT REASON...WILL
KEEP THE MAXIMUM SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT 5 PERCENT FOR NOW.
..BROYLES.. 03/14/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
|