Mar 14, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Fri Mar 14 07:17:46 UTC 2014 (20140314 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20140314 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140314 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140314 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 140715

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0215 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...
   A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
   THE SRN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AS A SFC LOW MOVES NEWD INTO THE MID MS
   VALLEY. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
   THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO BEFORE DAYBREAK...WITH THE STORMS MOVING
   INLAND ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS CONVECTION IS
   FORECAST TO ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AND MOVE EWD FROM THE MS DELTA TO
   THE FL PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY. AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES
   ALONG THE MOIST AXIS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
   AFTERNOON...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINEAR MCS APPEARS REASONABLE. THIS
   IDEA IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE GFS...ECMWF AND NAM SOLUTIONS.

   THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR A SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE INSTABILITY.
   WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD
   LIMIT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS NEAR MOBILE AL AND PENSACOLA FL AT 18Z TO 21Z SHOW SFC
   DEWPOINTS NEAR 65 F AND SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS
   COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 60 TO 65 KT RANGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
   FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD
   OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE DUE TO THE STRONG
   WIND FIELD AND VEERED UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES. A MARGINAL TORNADO
   THREAT COULD ALSO DEVELOP WITH ROTATING STORMS WITHIN THE LINE OR
   WITH DISCRETE CELLS THAT INITIATE WELL OUT AHEAD.

   ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IS FORECAST FROM SUNDAY MORNING
   INTO THE AFTERNOON...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DIFFERENT CONCERNING THE
   TIMING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS ALONG WITH INSTABILITY
   CONCERNS ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST. FOR THAT REASON...WILL
   KEEP THE MAXIMUM SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT 5 PERCENT FOR NOW.

   ..BROYLES.. 03/14/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z