SPC AC 150722

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0222 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...FLORIDA...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE SABINE RIVER AT 12Z MONDAY IS FORECAST
   TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...A
   LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY MORNING
   WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF FL BY AFTERNOON. A
   LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG A
   CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH SOME
   UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING TIMING...THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
   THE LINE WILL MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST OF FL DURING THE AFTERNOON.

   A VERY MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SFC
   DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 65 TO 70 F RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH
   SFC HEATING...SHOULD ALLOW MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY
   ON THE FL WEST COAST. THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDING FOR TAMPA BAY AT 21Z
   SHOWS MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH 60 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS
   ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH 50 KT OF FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC SHOULD
   SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE. AT
   THIS POINT...THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT IS THE MAIN
   QUESTION. THE ECMWF...NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS KEEP THE STRONGEST
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WELL TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT SUGGESTING THE MAIN
   DRIVING FACTOR WILL BE WARM ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. FOR
   THIS REASON...WILL KEEP THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT 5 PERCENT FOR
   NOW.

   ..BROYLES.. 03/15/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z