SPC AC 230730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS LIKELY BEYOND 12Z TUESDAY. BUT...
WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE LARGER-SCALE PATTERN...THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD...GRADUALLY TURNING OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS IT
DOES...MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT RAPID DEEPENING OF THE ASSOCIATED LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE EAST
OF NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL AREAS. IN
THE WAKE OF ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT...CONSIDERABLE COOLING/DRYING IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE FRONT LIKELY WILL STALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...INTO AREAS OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MIGRATING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH
ADVANCING INTO THE PACIFIC COAST...WITHIN THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE MID LATITUDE PACIFIC. MID-LEVEL
COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE /500 MB TEMPS OF -24 TO
-30C/ PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND
ROCKIES...PERHAPS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS AS WELL.
THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO AND THE
NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUT
ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN TO A DEVELOPING ZONE OF LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION COULD ALSO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND PECOS VALLEY. POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE STORMS STILL SEEMS LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME.
..KERR.. 03/23/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
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