Mar 23, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sun Mar 23 07:31:48 UTC 2014 (20140323 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20140323 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140323 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140323 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 230730

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODELS INDICATE FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS LIKELY BEYOND 12Z TUESDAY.  BUT...
   WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE LARGER-SCALE PATTERN...THIS
   FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD...GRADUALLY TURNING OFF THE
   ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS IT
   DOES...MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
   SUPPORT RAPID DEEPENING OF THE ASSOCIATED LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE EAST
   OF NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL AREAS.  IN
   THE WAKE OF ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT...CONSIDERABLE COOLING/DRYING IS
   EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND MUCH OF
   THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

   THE FRONT LIKELY WILL STALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF OF
   MEXICO...INTO AREAS OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOWER RIO
   GRANDE VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MIGRATING
   EASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH
   ADVANCING INTO THE PACIFIC COAST...WITHIN THE MAIN BELT OF
   WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE MID LATITUDE PACIFIC.  MID-LEVEL
   COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE /500 MB TEMPS OF -24 TO
   -30C/ PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
   WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
   NORTHWEST COAST INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND
   ROCKIES...PERHAPS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS AS WELL.  
   THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO AND THE
   NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  BUT
   ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN TO A DEVELOPING ZONE OF LOWER/MID
   TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION COULD ALSO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND PECOS VALLEY. POTENTIAL
   FOR SEVERE STORMS STILL SEEMS LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME.

   ..KERR.. 03/23/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z