SPC AC 170659

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0159 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014

   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

   NAM IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER AND SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH SHORT-WAVE
   TROUGH AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD. 
   DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES IT APPEARS ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE IN
   WAKE OF SFC FRONT.  SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE ALONG POLEWARD
   SIDE OF FRONT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS SERN WY AS SFC
   TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S.  ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS NOT
   EXPECTED TO BE THAT STRONG...MUCAPE BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG...SRN
   INFLUENCE OF SHORT WAVE WILL ENSURE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
   PRESENT FOR ANY UPDRAFTS THAT EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION.  HAIL IS
   THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IF THUNDERSTORMS MATURE AS NAM SUGGESTS.

   ..DARROW.. 05/17/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z