SPC AC 090707

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0207 AM CDT MON JUN 09 2014

   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO
   VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE
   THE MAIN THREAT WITH STRONGER STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING HOURS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY TO THE NRN GULF COAST WILL
   SLOWLY SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN U.S. WIDESPREAD
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AS FORCING FOR
   ASCENT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER WAVE. SOME STORMS
   MAY BE STRONG...WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WINDS POSSIBLE IN A VERY
   MOIST AND AT LEAST WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

   FURTHER TO THE WEST...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES
   WILL MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT
   THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND A LEE TROUGH ALONG
   THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
   TO ADVECT N/NW ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EJECTS
   ACROSS THE ROCKIES PROVIDING FORCING FOR ASCENT...HIGH BASED
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN INCREASING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF
   A S/SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

   ...OH VALLEY...

   SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH LARGER-SCALE TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE
   SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR ASCENT ATOP A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
   WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. WHILE MODELS VARY IN THE
   STRENGTH OF MIDLEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER
   SYSTEM...SOME THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
   SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

   ...PARTS OF SRN NEB...E-CNTRL CO...WRN KS...NW OK...

   A LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SELY
   LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE...ADVECTING MOISTURE N/NW ACROSS THE
   SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONG SFC HEATING COUPLED WITH STEEP
   LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRY
   TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A LINE AS A COLD FRONT DROPS S/SE ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT...BUT DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES
   GREATLY...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO.

   ..LEITMAN.. 06/09/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z