SPC AC 100711

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0211 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
   OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. HAIL AND
   GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT
   DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN
   U.S. AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ONLY SLOWLY PUSH
   EASTWARD. A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER
   MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...AND A SFC COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY TRACK S/SE
   FROM THE UPPER MS/MID-MO VALLEY TO NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO
   CENTRAL TX BY 12Z FRI. A WEAKER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER SE KS/ERN OK
   WILL DRIFT EWD ACROSS AR. AN ONGOING MCS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
   PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS ERN OK INTO AR.
   WHILE THERE IS SOME MODEL DISPARITY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
   DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT AND SEVERE POTENTIAL...AT LEAST A FEW STRONG
   STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AR DURING THE DAY.

   ...ERN OK AND WRN AR...

   AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK E/SE ACROSS KS AND OK OVERNIGHT
   WEDNESDAY/DAY 2 INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT TRACK SE
   FROM THE CENTRAL INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL OCCUR ON THE
   FRINGES OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
   THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO
   THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN OK INTO WRN AR. MODELS DIFFER WITH REGARDS
   TO AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT
   IT APPEARS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL WILL EXIST
   AS STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVERSPREAD THE
   REGION. IN ADDITION TO CONCERNS OVER DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION THAT
   MAY OCCUR...QUESTIONS REMAIN WHERE EXACTLY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
   LOCATED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. GIVEN THESE TIMING/PLACEMENT
   ISSUES...ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES WILL BE INTRODUCED AT THIS TIME.

   ..LEITMAN.. 06/10/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z