Jun 17, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Tue Jun 17 06:41:50 UTC 2014 (20140617 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20140617 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140617 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20140617 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 561,059 42,543,697 New York, NY...Chicago, IL...Houston, TX...Philadelphia, PA...San Antonio, TX...
   SPC AC 170640

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0140 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
   UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE NRN
   PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY WITH MAIN LOW CENTERED OVER SRN SK. A SFC
   TROUGH ATTENDANT TO THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO SHIFT NEWD ACROSS MN AND
   WI...WITH GRADUALLY VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND DECREASING SHEAR
   PROFILES OVERALL. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FOR A FEW
   STRONG STORMS...ALTHOUGH PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR A SLIGHT RISK
   IN THIS AREA.

   TO THE S...AN OLD FRONT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WITH TIME FROM ERN
   NEB INTO WRN KS...BUT MAY ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR A FEW SEVERE
   STORMS.

   ...MN...WI...IA...IL...
   AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE LARGE
   AREA...FROM ND INTO MN AND IA EWD ACROSS IL...IND...AND OH. THE MOST
   FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES ARE ACTUALLY GOING TO BE DURING THE MORNING
   AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...BEFORE THE UPPER
   TROUGH AXIS PASSES BY. SOME WIND AND HAIL THREAT MAY
   EXIST...ASSUMING A NOCTURNAL MCS DOES NOT OVERTURN THE ENTIRE AREA.
   THE DWINDLING SHEAR WILL COUNTERACT ANY FURTHER DESTABILIZATION FROM
   HEATING...BUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   ...ERN NEB...KS...NW OK INTO TX PANHANDLE...
   A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN S OF THE OLD FRONT...WITH HEATING
   REDUCING CIN TO NEAR ZERO BY LATE AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS WILL BE WEAK
   NEAR THE BOUNDARY...BUT LACK OF CAPPING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE SHOULD
   RESULT IN SCATTERED STORMS. SHEAR MAY JUST BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
   FEW SEVERE MULTICELLS OR WEAK SUPERCELLS GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES
   ALOFT AND AMPLE INSTABILITY...BUT THEY SHOULD BE SLOW-MOVING AND
   AFFECT A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA MAINLY ACROSS SRN KS INTO THE TX
   PANHANDLE. A SLIGHT RISK IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN LATER
   OUTLOOKS FOR LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.

   ..JEWELL.. 06/17/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z