Jun 17, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook | |||||||||
Updated: Tue Jun 17 06:41:50 UTC 2014 ( | ) | |||||||||
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic | |||||||||
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Probabilistic Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 170640 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0140 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY WITH MAIN LOW CENTERED OVER SRN SK. A SFC TROUGH ATTENDANT TO THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO SHIFT NEWD ACROSS MN AND WI...WITH GRADUALLY VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND DECREASING SHEAR PROFILES OVERALL. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...ALTHOUGH PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR A SLIGHT RISK IN THIS AREA. TO THE S...AN OLD FRONT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WITH TIME FROM ERN NEB INTO WRN KS...BUT MAY ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. ...MN...WI...IA...IL... AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE LARGE AREA...FROM ND INTO MN AND IA EWD ACROSS IL...IND...AND OH. THE MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES ARE ACTUALLY GOING TO BE DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES BY. SOME WIND AND HAIL THREAT MAY EXIST...ASSUMING A NOCTURNAL MCS DOES NOT OVERTURN THE ENTIRE AREA. THE DWINDLING SHEAR WILL COUNTERACT ANY FURTHER DESTABILIZATION FROM HEATING...BUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...ERN NEB...KS...NW OK INTO TX PANHANDLE... A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN S OF THE OLD FRONT...WITH HEATING REDUCING CIN TO NEAR ZERO BY LATE AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS WILL BE WEAK NEAR THE BOUNDARY...BUT LACK OF CAPPING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED STORMS. SHEAR MAY JUST BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A FEW SEVERE MULTICELLS OR WEAK SUPERCELLS GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND AMPLE INSTABILITY...BUT THEY SHOULD BE SLOW-MOVING AND AFFECT A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA MAINLY ACROSS SRN KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. A SLIGHT RISK IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN LATER OUTLOOKS FOR LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. ..JEWELL.. 06/17/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z |