SPC AC 290729

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0229 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
   NIGHT...GENERALLY NEAR OR IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM
   THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WEST SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO
   VALLEY...OZARK PLATEAU...SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SUBTROPICAL RIDGING APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE
   SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE
   WESTERLIES REMAIN FAIRLY AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.  WITHIN
   UPPER TROUGHING...EXTENDING ALONG A POSITIVELY TILTED AXIS FROM
   ONTARIO THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S...MODELS REMAIN SUGGESTIVE
   THAT THE MOST PROMINENT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE MAY LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE
   GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FLOW
   FIELDS PROBABLY WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...BUT COULD STILL IMPACT
   MUCH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH DAY. 
   HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MAY BECOME
   MOSTLY CONFINED TO AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO
   QUEBEC...WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE DEEP SURFACE LOW MIGRATING
   ACROSS JAMES BAY INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC.

   A RESIDUAL PLUME OF ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR MAY LINGER INTO THIS
   FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE UPPER TROUGHING...FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO
   VALLEY WEST SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
   SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  GIVEN THE CONTINUING SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE
   CONTENT FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT...THIS COULD SUPPORT AT LEAST AREAS
   OF MODERATE TO STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE
   HEATING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...THIS REMAINS AT LEAST
   SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TODAY THROUGH
   MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TO GENERATE OUTFLOW AND OTHERWISE ALTER THE
   ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT.  JUST HOW EXTENSIVE THIS
   BECOMES...AND HOW FAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE REMNANT BELT OF WESTERLIES
   THIS ADVANCES...WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
   DURING THIS PERIOD.  FOR NOW...UNCERTAINTIES ARE TOO LARGE TO
   ATTEMPT TO ASCERTAIN OR DELINEATE SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES.

   ..KERR.. 06/29/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z