Aug 5, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Tue Aug 5 07:15:41 UTC 2014 (20140805 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20140805 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140805 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20140805 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 050715

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0215 AM CDT TUE AUG 05 2014

   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   COUNTRY FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   TRANSITORY SHORT WAVES WILL PROGRESS...WITHIN WEAK FLOW REGIME FROM
   WEST TO EAST...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CONUS DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD. 
   EACH OF THESE FEATURES WILL LIKELY INDUCE SCT THUNDERSTORMS...
   ESPECIALLY DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY...AS CINH IS NOT EXPECTED TO
   BE PARTICULARLY STRONG.

   STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED
   INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST.  WITH
   RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM CO NWD INTO MT
   A RATHER ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY SHOULD BE NOTED.

   ANOTHER AREA WHERE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
   WILL EXTEND ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE SERN
   U.S.  BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE RATHER
   WEAK AND THIS DOES NOT LEND CONFIDENCE IN ORGANIZED SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE.

   ..DARROW.. 08/05/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z