SPC AC 140730

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2014

   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN KS INTO MO...

   ...SUMMARY...
   STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A THREAT FOR MAINLY
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL FROM A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
   INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA. OTHER STRONG STORMS MAY
   OCCUR OVER EASTERN MONTANA AS WELL AS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   BLOCKING REGIME WILL PERSIST WITH LARGE UPPER LOW DOMINATING SERN
   CANADA AND THE NERN STATES. UPPER LOW OVER THE NWRN U.S. WILL
   ADVANCE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH MT. FARTHER SOUTH...MODELS HAVE TRENDED
   TOWARD SIMILAR SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
   CONTINUE THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY AREA.
   THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SFC LOW AND BOUNDARY THAT
   SHOULD ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH KS INTO MO. FARTHER NORTH A COLD FRONT
   WILL CONTINUE SWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NRN PLAINS. 

   ...KS THROUGH MO...

   WITHIN THE SLY FLOW REGIME...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO
   MOISTEN WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S LIKELY FROM ERN KS
   THROUGH THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY. SOME EARLY MORNING STORMS MAY BE
   ONGOING...ESPECIALLY FROM IA AND NRN MO WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC
   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ. SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY THE
   ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DESTABILIZE DURING THE DAY WITH MLCAPE FROM
   2000-2500 J/KG POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
   WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
   ITS ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY FROM ERN KS INTO MO. WHILE UPPER WINDS
   ATTENDING THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK...SOME INCREASE IN
   MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM 25-35 KT. STORM
   MODE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY MULTICELL...BUT SOME MARGINAL SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
   WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

   ...ERN MT...

   AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS...AN AXIS OF MODEST 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE
   IS EXPECTED OVER ERN MT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND STORMS WILL LIKELY
   REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A MODEST MID-LEVEL JET 
   WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH BASE MAY SUPPORT 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. 

   ...GREAT LAKES AREA...

   AN AXIS OF LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO ADVECT INTO THIS
   REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND MLCAPE FROM 500-1000 J/KG WILL BE
   POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE NWLY
   FLOW REGIME WHERE 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW
   PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON.

   ..DIAL.. 08/14/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z