Storm Prediction Center Sep 24, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook


Sep 24, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Wed Sep 24 07:30:46 UTC 2014 ( \| )
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

Categorical Graphic

Risk	Area (sq. mi.)	Area Pop.	Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Probabilistic Graphic

20140924 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic

Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

Prob. Risk	Area (sq. mi.)	Area Pop.	Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

   SPC AC 240730

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014

   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES ON
   FRIDAY...WITH OTHER THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND
   THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
   FRIDAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN EASTWARD-SHIFTING
   UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH WEAK WESTERLIES OTHERWISE
   PREVALENT OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. 

   ...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY/GREAT BASIN...
   LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS THE
   UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER CA. AT LEAST ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY
   FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY
   WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
   ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY VICINITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
   PARTS OF THE REGION WILL BE REEVALUATED FOR LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES
   IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

   ..GUYER.. 09/24/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z