SPC AC 210810

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0210 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF GULF COAST
   STATES AND CAROLINAS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST
   STATES...TN VALLEY AND CAROLINAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
   LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND
   NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY. DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY
   THREATS.

   ...GULF COAST STATES...
   A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD
   ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. AN
   MCS MAY ONGOING IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
   TROUGH AT DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD
   AGREEMENT...APPEARING TO MOVE A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM FROM THE NEW
   ORLEANS AREA SUNDAY MORNING EWD INTO NRN FL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NAM
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z/SUN ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS
   IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F...MLCAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM
   SHEAR NEAR 60 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-3
   KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF 300 TO 350 M2/S2...SHOULD BE ENOUGH
   FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE A TORNADO OR TWO. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY
   DEPEND UPON HOW MANY DISCRETE CELLS CAN FORM AHEAD OF THE MAIN MCS.
   IF AN MCS CAN REMAIN SUSTAINED OR REDEVELOP IN THE CNTRL GULF COAST
   STATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN THERE COULD BE A SUBSTANTIAL WIND
   DAMAGE THREAT AS WELL.

   ...ERN CAROLINAS...
   A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE OH
   AND TN VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
   MARKEDLY INCREASE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY. AS A
   RESULT...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 60S F ACROSS
   THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE CAROLINAS BY AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECASTS
   SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST
   STATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS
   DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
   00Z/MON FOR CHARLESTON SC SHOW MLCAPE AROUND 750 J/KG WITH 50 KT OF
   0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STORM
   ORGANIZATION AS A LINE OR CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS MOVES INTO THE
   REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WIND DAMAGE MAY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
   WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL REMAINING CLOSE TO THE SC-NC COAST WHERE
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE MOST FAVORABLE.

   ..BROYLES.. 11/21/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z