Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 100554
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 PM CST FRI JAN 09 2015
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN TEXAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
...DISCUSSION...
DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW FIELD ACROSS THE U.S. SHOULD BE
UNDERWAY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AS SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING WITHIN THE
LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD OVER THE ERN U.S. SHIFTS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND ADJACENT WRN ATLANTIC.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...MUCH FLATTER -- THOUGH STILL CYCLONIC
-- FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE N CENTRAL AND NERN STATES.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BE CROSSING THE
NRN MEXICO/WRN TX VICINITY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY EWD WITH TIME.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY.
...ERN HALF OF TX...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSES W TX DURING
THE DAY...SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN TX
WITH TIME -- ASCENDING ISENTROPICALLY ATOP THE COLD BOUNDARY LAYER
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION. RESULTING THETA-E ADVECTION ATOP THE
COLD SURFACE-BASED LAYER SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINAL
ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING QG
ASCENT SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ROOTED AOA H8. INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
OCCUR ACROSS S TX DURING THE DAY...THEN SPREADING NWD/NEWD WITH TIME
-- EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE ERN THIRD OF THE STATE BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. WITH INSTABILITY PROGGED TO REMAIN WEAK
HOWEVER...IN CONJUNCTION WITH ONLY MODEST CLOUD-LAYER FLOW...SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
..GOSS.. 01/10/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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