Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 130552
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 PM CST MON JAN 12 2015
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TODAY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...AS WELL AS
ACROSS THE MOGOLLON RIM/COLORADO PLATEAU AREA OF ARIZONA AND
ADJACENT NEW MEXICO. ADDITIONAL WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN LATE TONIGHT.
...SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF LARGE...STRONG/COLD SURFACE RIDGING APPEARS LIKELY TO
WEAKEN WHILE SHIFTING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHEAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT THE SHALLOW LEADING EDGE OF THIS
COLD AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST EARLY TODAY...AND INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT...WHILE STALLING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST BY TONIGHT. THIS WOULD
SEEM TO BE MOSTLY IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE NOW CROSSING TEXAS...WITHIN A SEASONABLY MODEST BELT OF
WESTERLIES EMANATING FROM THE MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC.
MEANWHILE...DOWNSTREAM OF AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST...A MUCH MORE PROMINENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DIGGING FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO ARIZONA. AS
IT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A BELT OF WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM
THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC...MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY SHEARED WHILE CONTRIBUTING TO MID/UPPER JET
STRENGTHENING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA.
...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
BEYOND EARLY THIS MORNING...FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNCLEAR. BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAIRLY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MODELS ARE GENERALLY SUGGESTIVE
THAT DESTABILIZATION WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
...ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO...
MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DIGGING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
WEAK DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE COLORADO PLATEAU...AND ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM...TODAY. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING.
...NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN...
LOWER/MID-LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC WARMING AND MOISTENING...ABOVE/NORTH OF
THE OFFSHORE SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR WEAK
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
..KERR/GLEASON.. 01/13/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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