Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 170553
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT OCCUR ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH A VERY ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLE
ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST.
...CAROLINA COAST...
CONSOLIDATION OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES FROM THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES TO
THE LEE OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL YIELD AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO TN VALLEY BY 12Z/SUN. WITH A MODIFIED
POLAR AIR MASS CURRENTLY ENTRENCHED OFF THE S ATLANTIC
COAST...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED IN ADVANCE OF THE
TROUGH. BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE
PERIOD...YIELDING A CORRIDOR OF SCATTERED CONVECTION. HIGH-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES APPEAR RATHER MARGINAL FOR CHARGE SEPARATION SUGGESTING
CONVECTION WILL BE SHALLOW INLAND. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SCANT
ELEVATED BUOYANCY MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST TO YIELD ABOUT A 10
PERCENT PROBABILITY OF THUNDER.
...WA COAST...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING SPORADIC LIGHTNING
STRIKES OVER THE NE PACIFIC ON FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...SHOULD REACH
THE WA COAST BY EARLY SUN MORNING. A BRIEF TSTM OR TWO MIGHT DEVELOP
WITHIN RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED/POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION AS MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. WITH EXPECTED MEAGER BUOYANCY...WILL DEFER TO
LATER OUTLOOKS FOR A TSTM AREA DELINEATION.
..GRAMS/PICCA.. 01/17/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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