Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 171244
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015
VALID 171300Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT OCCUR TONIGHT ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTH
AND SOUTH CAROLINA.
...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL ACCELERATE ENEWD TO THE SE ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY
SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF AN UPSTREAM WAVE THAT WILL PROGRESS FROM THE
CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID MS AND OH VALLEY REGION. RAPID
AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL COMMENCE OVER THE GULF STREAM TODAY AS
RETURN FLOW TO THE CAROLINAS DEVELOPS. THE APPROACH OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT
TONIGHT...WHEN BUOYANCY COULD BECOME SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO SUPPORT
THE RISK FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR THE COASTS OF SC/NC
AFTER ABOUT 06Z.
OTHERWISE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND OVER WA/ORE LATE
TONIGHT. STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK SURFACE-BASED CAPE
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE POST-FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW REGIME OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE WEAK BUOYANCY AND AN APPARENT LACK OF LIGHTNING STRIKE
DETECTIONS IN THE ZONE OF ASCENT NEAR 45 N AND 140 W SUGGEST THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL REMAIN TOO LOW TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK AREA
TONIGHT ALONG THE WA/ORE COASTS.
..THOMPSON/GLEASON.. 01/17/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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