Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 261930
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015
VALID 262000Z - 271200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S. THIS
PERIOD.
...20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE...
NO CHANGES ARE BEING MADE. PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
STILL APPEAR BELOW THE MINIMUM 10 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR A
CATEGORICAL THUNDERSTORM AREA.
..KERR.. 01/26/2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/
...SYNOPTIC SETUP/FORECAST...
AMPLIFIED WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW EXITING THE S ATLANTIC CST WILL CONTINUE E ATOP
STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE LATER TODAY...INDUCING STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS NE OF HATTERAS. THIS LOW SHOULD TRACK NNE TO NEAR
40W/70W BY 12Z TUE...WITH APPRECIABLE DEEPENING LIKELY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT.
COLD AND/OR DRY/STABLE AIR AT LWR LVLS WILL PROHIBIT SFC-BASED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CONUS. NEVERTHELESS...A COUPLE AREAS MAY
EXPERIENCE A FEW SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES. IN THE NEAR-TERM
---MID-LVL COLD ADVECTION/UPLIFT WITH NRN PART OF AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY FOSTER SUFFICIENT DEEPENING OF EXISTING
CONVECTIVE BAND IN ERN NC TO SUPPORT ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKES AS THE
BAND MOVES/DEVELOPS ENE ACROSS THE NC CSTL PLN AND TIDEWATER VA
THROUGH MID AFTN. STORMS ALSO WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP OVER THE
OFFSHORE GULF STREAM WATERS UNTIL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CLEARS THE
AREA LATER TNGT.
FARTHER N...ELEVATED WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DEEP ASCENT WILL
STRONGLY INCREASE LATE TNGT AND EARLY TUE OVER ERN LONG
ISLAND...SERN NEW ENGLAND...AND THE ADJACENT CSTL WATERS. WHILE
TEMPERATURE PROFILES MAY REMAIN TOO COLD FOR MUCH CHARGE SEPARATION
WITH INLAND EXTENT...EXPECTED TIGHTENING OF DEEP-LAYER BAROCLINIC
ZONE MAY YIELD INCREASING COVERAGE OF EMBEDDED ELEVATED
CONVECTION...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES...LATER IN THE PERIOD.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN S AND E OF CAPE COD.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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