Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 031238
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 AM CST TUE FEB 03 2015
VALID 031300Z - 041200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY ACROSS THE UNITED STATES FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS DEPICT A MIDLEVEL CYCLONE PROGRESSING EWD
ACROSS NWRN MEXICO...PRECEDED BY A BROAD WARM CONVEYOR STRUCTURE
EXTENDING INTO TX. THE ANTICIPATED EWD/ENEWD PROGRESSION OF THE
CYCLONE ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY INTO S TX WILL MAINTAIN
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS S TX...SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD RAIN. VERY
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY EVOLVE ACROSS S TX LATER TODAY AS
CYCLONE-PRECEDING DCVA/ASCENT YIELDS MODEST MIDLEVEL COOLING.
HOWEVER...BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LIMITED FOR ANY MORE
THAN AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO -- AT MOST -- OVER INLAND
AREAS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OFF THE LOWER TX COAST.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...CONVECTIVELY STABLE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES WILL BE HOSTILE FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION.
..COHEN/MEAD.. 02/03/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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