Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 051630
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CST THU FEB 05 2015
VALID 051630Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.
...SYNOPSIS...
A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING OVER N FL...WITH A WEAK
LOBE EXTENDING SWWD OVER THE E CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE
ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS MOVING SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL FL.
HOWEVER...A BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION MOVED OVER CENTRAL/S FL
EARLIER THIS MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AND SOME
RAINFALL LINGERING TO THE W-NW OF THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE BAND THAT
IS NOW OFFSHORE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS S FL THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THIS THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY
THE CLOUDS AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR SURFACE HEATING PRIOR TO FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
ELSEWHERE...A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WILL SPREAD NEWD OVER NW CA/SW ORE
IN ADVANCE OF AN ERN PACIFIC MID-UPPER TROUGH. THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES WILL BE LARGELY MOIST ADIABATIC WITHIN THE PLUME...WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR BUOYANCY AND ANY ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORM RISK.
..THOMPSON/PICCA.. 02/05/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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